The report points out that in recent years, new ship orders for bulk carriers have continued to be sluggish. Although the annual new ship order volume doubled to 52 million dwt despite the high revenue in 2021, this is only slightly higher than the average level of 48 million dwt after 2009. In 2022, orders for new bulk carrier ships fell back to 26 million dwt, essentially unchanged from 2020.

Clarkson analyzed that there were many reasons for the decline in new ship orders for bulk cargo ships last year. Firstly, in the context of sluggish demand and easing congestion, weak market sentiment weakened shipowners' willingness to book ships; The second is the high price of bulk carriers, with the price of new bulk carriers soaring by 37% between the end of 2020 and August 2022. The limited available shipping space for shipyards has also had a certain impact; In addition, uncertainty about future fuel options has also delayed shipowners from placing orders.

Based on current handheld orders, the delivery volume of bulk carriers in 2023 is expected to be 33 million dwt, 40% lower than the average level after 2009; In 2024, delivery further decreased to 26 million dwt, the lowest level since 2008.

On the other hand, the bulk carrier fleet is constantly aging, with recent delivery and scrapping rates slower compared to the early 2010's. Currently, the average age of the bulk carrier fleet is 11.6 years, an increase of 33% since 2017. In the existing fleet, the carrying capacity of older ships with a ship age of over 20 years reached 22 million dwt, an increase of 40% compared to the beginning of 2021, which means that the scale of ships available for scrapping has further expanded. Considering the impact of the weak market and the entry into force of new environmental regulations, it is widely expected that the number of ship demolitions will increase significantly between 2023 and 2024.